Balaji Telefilms gained ground today on  renewed buying support ahead of the company's Q4 results, which are likely to be impressive.

The scrip of the television content maker was up by 3.26% at Rs 57 on the BSE at 15:55 IST. A substantial volume of over 1.95 lakh shares was recorded on the counter. In the last 11 sessions between 5 and 20 May 2003, the Balaji Telefilms (BTL) scrip shed 19% to Rs 55.20 from Rs 68.10.

BTL is scheduled to announce its results for the fourth quarter (Q4) ended 31 March 2003 on Thursday. The company is expected to register a massive 68.5-80% rise in its net profit to Rs 15-16 crore on a 46.5-60% increase in sales to Rs 48-52.5 crore.

Meanwhile, for the full year ended 31 March 2003, BTL had issued a guidance of a 60% rise in total income and a 95% growth in net profit.

Analysts said the Q4 earnings growth may even surpass the estimates, but the concerns are over the company's growth  in the current financial year. They expect the company to record a flat growth in FY 2003-04.

Analysts said that BTL's judicious decision to focus on TRP-linked commissioned programmes as against sponsored programmes is a cause for concern. The risk with commissioned programmes is that the company's margins may come under pressure if  the serials are taken off the air for one reason or the other. Also, production of serials or programmes under the commissioned category is costlier, they added.

Earlier, there were reports that Sony Entertainment Television has decided to take the company's serial 'Kahani Terri Merri' off the air due to its poor performance. Already, the company's serials are facing a tough time due to severe competition from UTV and Contilogue.

Analysts said there is a gradual shift in television programming. For the past two years, TV producers were only looking at 'soaps' for rapid success. But, now they are also  looking at comedies, game shows, action serials, and detective serials.

BTL has been a leader in the television industry with the huge success of its family soaps like 'Kahaani Ghar Ghar Ki' and 'Kyunki Saas Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi'. But, of late, its serials' television ratings points (TRPs) are on the decline.

Analysts said that if BTL has to cope up with the competition, the company should come up with new programmes with the popularity levels of  the above serials.

Earlier, on 30 January 2003, BTL posted a massive 105.3% rise in net profit to 17.47 crore (for Q3 ended 31 December 2002), compared to Rs 8.51 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year. Total income increased by 73.5% to Rs 52.74 crore from Rs 30.40 crore in DQ 2001. Revenues from commissioned programmes jumped by 87.6% to Rs 43.30 crore (Rs 23.08 crore), while that from sponsored programmes climbed 32% to Rs 9.38 crore (Rs 7.10 crore).

As on 31 March 2003, the promoters' holding in BTL stood at 57.8%, while that of the public was at 6.05% and institutions (including foreign as well as domestic) at 29.57%.