The agriculture ministry has further lowered its estimates of kharif crop production, indicating a shortfall of over 19 per cent in foodgrains output alone. It had earlier estimated the shortfall at 18.72 per cent.

The ministry is also expecting the rabi foodgrains production this year is to be down by 7.5 per cent compared to the previous season, ruling out any chances of partly making up for the kharif losses in the rabi season.

The total shortfall in foodgrains output during the year is projected at 28.85 million tonnes or 13.61 per cent.

The output of kharif oilseeds is estimated to have dropped 34.4 per cent and that of pulses 18 per cent.

Taking kharif and the current rabi together, the oilseeds output is projected to be down 24.5 per cent and pulses 13.12 per cent.

The new set of output projections for agricultural year 2002-03 (the second estimate for the kharif and the first preliminary one for the rabi) were released on Monday.

The data indicates that the total foodgrains production in 2002-03 is likely to be around 183.17 million tonnes, down 28.85 million tonnes or 13.6 per cent from last year's 212.02 million tonnes.

The shortfall in rice (kharif and rabi together) is reckoned at 15.36 million tonnes or 16.5 per cent. The wheat output is anticipated to fall 4 per cent from last year's 71.81 million tonnes to 68.89 million tonnes this year.

Significantly, the food output in the rabi is expected to be higher than in the kharif this year.

While kharif grains harvest is now estimated at 90.21 million tonnes, the rabi grains are projected at 92.91 million tonnes.

Coarse cereals are also estimated to have dropped in volume by 8.8 million tonnes or 26 per cent to touch a low of 25.1 million tonnes, against last year's 33.9 million tonnes.

Among the commercial crops, the output of nine major oilseeds together is estimated at mere 15.44 million tonnes in 2002-03, as against 20.46 million tonnes in 2001-02.

Pulses have also registered a decline of over 13 per cent this year to touch 11.46 million tonnes, as against 13.19 million tonnes in the previous year.

Regarding fibre crops, cotton output is estimated at 8.94 million bales, down 11.4 per cent from the previous year's 10.09 million bales of 170 kg each.

Jute and mesta output has declined only marginally by 1.2 per cent—from the previous year's 11.64 million bales to 11.5 million bales of 180 kg each.

Sugarcane production is projected to fall by some 4.9 per cent to 285.3 million tonnes from the previous year's 300 million tonnes.