Current global recession and technology meltdown notwithstanding, the global Information and Communications Technologies or ICT industry is set to witness a steady revival in the next 2-3 years, riding on the increasing usage of the Internet for e-business and plethora of wireless devices that will become more customer-centric.

According to a study on "Technology trends that would shape the ICT industry: 2003 & beyond", conducted by the US-based International Data Corporation, the Internet subscriber base will grow exponentially to touch a record 1 billion (100 crore), and a whopping $6 trillion business will be transacted through e-business.

IDC (India) Ltd managing director Pradeep Gupta told rediff.com in Bangalore that out of 3 billion cell phones that would be in use by 2006, about 50 per cent of them will have wireless devices, delivering a host of customer services ranging from personal needs to business operations.

"Hotspots like WiFi and Tablet PCs, personal accessories and remote access devices will play a dominant role in the increasing use of mobile phones to download content, data, pictures, music and wireless games through high-speed bandwidth networks," Gupta stated.

Integration of web sites and wireless devices will give access to a range of services to conduct B2B, B2C, and C2C dealings and transactions the world over. This market is expected to grow to $30 billion by 2006.

As against one in 50 web sites connected to company system currently, one in 10 web sites will be connected to each firm's back-end support in the next couple of years.

"Unlike in the boom period, the growth of the ICT industry is expected to be steady at an ascending rate, with increasing focus on vertical segments for catering to every segment of society," Gupta asserted.

Among the vertical segments that will witness IT investments are healthcare, utilities, transportation, telecom, consumer services, wholesale and retail markets.

"With the days of double digit growth becoming history, the global ICT industry is set to post a annual growth rate of 6-7 per cent till 2006. Of the total budgets, investment is growing at 2 per cent, while IT spending is at about 10 per cent.

Competing for a share of the same pie of outsourcing with other countries, especially China, the Indian software sector will have to focus on mobile middleware, XML database management, enterprise information projects, messaging, and translation tools for addressing the needs of a globalised world," Gupta stated.

At the same time, the industry will have to address the key concerns of uptime, security, performance, end users, cost of operations, quality and privacy issues.

Admitting that the forecast made by the IDC on the revival of the IT industry, especially tech spending in 2002 went awry, Gupta said a number of unforeseen events and developments post-September 11 had put paid to the efforts of recovery.

"The accounting scandals in the US, turbulence on the Wall Street, rise in oil prices, spate of terror attacks, and international crisis in the run up to the Iraq war have all led to economic uncertainty and continued downturn," Gupta recalled.

Even as the global IT industry witnessed a serious impact on tech spending by enterprises and government organisations, the Indian industry demonstrated a reverse trend, cashing in on outsourcing of software services and growing demand for IT-enabled services (read BPO) despite pressure on billing rates and operating margins.

"In these challenging times, there is a paradigm shift in decision-making. Instead of CIOs (chief information officers) and CTOs (chief technology officers), various functional heads of different departments are calling the shots in deciding the IT spending in consultation with their CEOs directly.

To stay competitive, cut costs and maintain time-to-market delivery schedule, the new mandate is to understand the buying cycle, deal with the complexity of technology changes and service the customer on priority.

As in the case of goods and services in other sectors, enterprises have become demanding, asking more for less even in IT budgets in a bid to cut costs and maintain profitability.

"The new mandate for the Indian IT industry is to align with the new reality, respond to customers' needs in quick-time and plan for long-term (3-4 years) investments.