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Will the people of Handwara come out to vote?
The killing of Jammu and Kashmir law minister Mushtaq Ahmed Lone by militants has had the desired impact on the electioneering in Kupwara district.
Few campaign vehicles were to be seen on Handwara roads, even on Saturday - the last day of campaigning for the seats in Kupwara and Baramulla districts, which go to polls on September 16.
No major rally had been organised after Lone's killing early this week.
"The electoral officers did not allow us to organize any rally on Saturday owing to the security threat," said Chaudhary Ramazan, the sitting National Conference MLA and candidate.
But in slain Peoples Conference founder Abdul Gani Lone's hometown, there is no need for any rally or canvassing.
The issue here is not separatism or about joining the mainstream, but about venting anger on the ruling National Conference through Ramazan.
Allegations about Ramazan's nepotism and corrupt practices abound. "If we vote, we will against Ramazan. We want to put an end to his reign," said Mohammed Amin, a local farmer.
The anti-incumbency factor is helping Ghulam Mohiuddin Sofi, a senior Peoples Conference leader who was recently expelled from the party for contesting in the election.
According to locals, Sofi has been campaigning in the villages around Handwara carrying the picture of the late Abdul Gani Lone and seeking votes in his name.
"The foremost issue is that of resolution of the Kashmir dispute between India, Pakistan and the people of Kashmir through dialogue. The second is the atrocities by the National Conference government," Sofi told rediff.com.
"By focusing on the administrative problems faced by the people along with the main Kashmir issue, we would have only strengthened our cause. The Centre will (definitely) talk to the elected representatives of the people," he added.
However, Sofi has no answer when asked if his separatist demand will be heard in the legislative assembly, which will be full of people who swear by the Constitution. But he is confident of winning hands down.
Whether he will or not will be largely dependent on whether people come out to vote or not.
"We will vote only if coerced by the security forces. In that case, we will vote for Sofi as the NC did nothing for us. They only took care of their kith and kin," said Subhan Dar, an apple grower.
But a mixture of apathy towards the electoral process and the fear of inviting the militants' wrath might ensure a poor turn in Kupwara district. In which case, the NC will benefit as its committed supporters would vote anyway.
Beyond Handwara town, it's either the army or the militants. While the army patrols the village roads, the militants rule the forests. The latter sneak into the villages and drop leaflets outside mosques threatening people of dire consequences if they participate in the polls.
In the compound of the NC candidate's house, Gani Khan, an elderly Rajwar resident, puts the issue in perspective. "Why am I here (in Khan's house)? Because if the NC forms the government, I would need its blessings to get my son a job. But I will not vote as I do not want to antagonise the militants."
"Besides, who is really interested in the elections. But if the security forces threaten us, we will have to vote," he confesses.
Jammu and Kashmir Elections 2002: The complete coverage
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