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All went in Cong's favour in AP except the final results

Despite polling 43 per cent of the total votes and a positive swing of four per cent in its favour, the Congress failed to retain its hold over Andhra Pradesh in the just-concluded polls. The main reason why this happened was the overwhelming presence of the Telugu Desam-Bharatiya Janata Party combination.

While the BJP, which had won four seats in 1998, increased its tally to seven, the TDP too improved its performance, winning 29 seats up 17 from the last year's 12. The Congress, which had 22 seats in the 12th Lok Sabha from Andhra Pradesh, saw its strength reduced to just five seats.

According to a UNI-C-Voter data analysis, the BJP-TDP tie-up earned the two parties 50 per cent of the total votes polled in the state.

In the lower Andhra Pradesh region, it was almost a clean sweep for the combine as it bagged eight out the nine seats. It enjoyed a positive swing of three per cent in this region and secured more than half of the total votes polled.

The Congress, on the other hand, with a negative swing of one per cent could retain only one seat. Other smaller parties faced a negative swing of two per cent proving that there was a very strong pro-incumbency factor at work in this part of the state.

The TDP managed to wrest all but one seat from the Congress in this region, while the BJP opened its account by winning the Tirupati seat.

Another significant factor in play in this election was the division of the Left votes between the Congress and the TDP.

Of the seven seats in the Rayalseema region, five were with the Congress in 1998, and the remaining two with the TDP. This time, the TDP-BJP alliance has not only bagged six seats, but has also increased its vote share considerably. The Congress vote share in this region remained static and the BJP's went up slightly with a three per cent swing in its favour.

Of the eleven seats in the upper Andhra region, the BJP-TDP combine won ten, leaving the Congress with only the Bobbili seat.

Though the BJP-TDP combine lost three per cent votes here, it was able to wrest three seats from the Congress and one - Bhadrachalam - from the Left .

The combine polled 52 per cent of the total votes here, whereas the Congress could get only 42 per cent. Barring Bhadrachalam and Bobbili, in all other constituencies the BJP-TDP combine polled more than 50 per cent votes.

The most important result in this region was from Vishakhapatnam where the Congress candidate and noted Telugu film producer T Subbarami Reddy was trounced by a TDP candidate.

In rest of the state too it was smooth sailing for the combine. Even though there was a swing of 15 per vent in Congress' favour in Srikakulam, Kakinada and Rajmundry, the combined strength of BJP-TDP proved to be too much for it.

But the key factor in the rest of the state was the vote bank of the TDP (NTR-LP) of Lakshmi Parvathi. Her party had polled 18 per cent votes in the last elections, but this time these votes were polarised and the TDP-BJP combine emerged as the biggest beneficiary of this division.

Her votes made a difference in Srikakulam also where her 30 per cent vote bank was bifurcated between the Congress and the TDP-BJP combine, paving the way for an easy victory for the TDP candidate.

In Naxalite infested lower Telangana region, out of the eight seats, the BJP-TDP combine was able to win six seats and maintained its vote share of 47 per cent. The Congress managed to retain only one seat here.

UNI

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