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BJP rules in south Bihar, the RJD in the north

Soroor Ahmed in Patna

If south Bihar is the RJD's Achilles heel, then it's in the north that the BJP falters. Though relatively small in size, this densely populated pocket has 26 parliamentary seats while central and south Bihar has 14 each.

In 1998 the BJP, in alliance with the Samata, could win only three seats, that too by a relatively slender margin. The Samata Party performed better, winning won four seats from this belt while Ram Vilas Paswan won the sole seat that the Janata Dal bagged. The remaining 18 seats went to the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress combination. In fact the RJD won 14 out of its total 17 seats from this part of the state.

In the coming election too the backwaters of north Bihar is likely to pose a big challenge for the BJP. North Bihar, the nursery of the socialist movement, has never been an ideal wicket for the BJP. The party managed to open its account in 1996 and 1998 elections only because it had tied up with the Samata Party. The Samata Party has quite a few leaders with a socialist background. In 1991, when the BJP juggernaut was rolling all over the north India, the party drew a blank in north Bihar.

If the new version, the Janata Dal (United), wants more seats from the BJP in the state, it hasn't forgotten its strength in north Bihar. Now with Ram Vilas Paswan and Sharad Yadav -- both contesting from north Bihar -- the JD(U) can pose trouble for the RJD-Congress combine in several seats.

Bihar can be politically divided into three major divisions. If there's a demand for the Jharkhand/Vananchal state works in the south, central Bihar is known for agrarian unrest, and the north for its socialist movement. Unlike the south and some pockets of central Bihar the north isn't communally sensitive.

Starved of industry -- barring a few sugar mills, some sick, some functional -- this region aids peaceful anti-establishment movement, be it that of Mahatma Gandhi in Champaran or of JP in 1974.

So the BJP is strongest in the urbanised and industrialised south Bihar, quite comfortably placed in central Bihar and very weak in north Bihar. Historically the caste trouble in the north isn't as violent as in central Bihar but the feudal forces have always been strong.

People in this region have opted to use the ballot -- rather than the bullet as in central Bihar -- to challenge the dominance of the upper castes. Laloo Prasad Yadav made good use of this factor, and he finds the divide between castes a useful thing to exploit every time.

The BJP abandoned its Ekla Chalo Re (Go It Alone) policy in Bihar only when it realised after the 1991 election that it could not gain a foothold in north Bihar without help from other parties.

In 1996 it tied up with the Samata Party. This time too the BJP accepted leaders like Sharad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan of the Janata Dal, hitherto its sworn enemy, into its fold to neutralise the RJD in the north.

Though the Samata Party gave the RJD a tough fight in north Bihar, it is truly in its element in central Bihar. Both its Union ministers -- Nitish Kumar and George Fernandes -- came from central Bihar. The other two state Union ministers from the state were BJP candidates from south Bihar.

For the first time since 1952 the politically-conscious north Bihar found no representation in the Union cabinet. In the 1991 parliamentary election the Congress won just one seat -- Begusarai in north Bihar. Krishna Shahi, the victorious candidate, was inducted into the Narasimha Rao cabinet.

Though the BJP and the JD(U) are trying to use Vajpayee's image and the Kargil problem to woo over the voters. It is too early to suggest that such propaganda may pay dividend in the interiors of Bihar, especially in the north. The BJP sources confirm they plan to use the matter of Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin and the Kargil issue.

They will downplay the Laloo Yadav factor since that could prove counter-productive. They hope that raising issues of patriotism and nationality, even the Yadavs and other downtrodden communities will vote for their party.

However, Laloo Yadav plans to counter Kargil propaganda by attacking his bete noire, Defence Minister George Fernandes. But he is also expected to extol the work done by his wife's government for the rehabilitation of war widows.

The BJP, meanwhile, had even taken the help of celebrities to break the RJD's hold in north Bihar. For example, by-passing some senior party members it put up cricketer Kirti Azad as its candidate from Darbhanga, a constituency with a sizeable Brahmin population.

Though Azad is the son of former state chief minister Bhagwat Jha Azad, he is hardly considered a Bihari since he spent his whole life in Delhi. Yet the BJP is trying to cash in on his image as a cricketer who changed the course of a match to help India beat Pakistan.

But there is a possibility that geography could dispose what the politicians proposed. The floods in the region could change many poll calculations. Laloo Yadav is particularly worried about what it could mean to his wife's government since natural calamities tend to hit the poor -- the larger vote bank -- harder than the rich.

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