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Christians may tilt the scales in south Bihar

Soroor Ahmed in Patna

They may be a silent minority, but they are going to make the difference in the general election this time.

Political pundits are as yet not attaching much significance to the presence of the Christians in south Bihar, but they are capable of upsetting many an applecart.

The political strength of the Christians of the Jharkhand region has often been underplayed, though they have contributed significantly in shaping the region's politics and culture.

The Jharkhand movement itself owes much to them, be it the legendary Jaipal Singh, who represented India in hockey in the 1936 Olympic Games in Berlin alongside none other than Dhyan Chand and later founded the Adivasi Mahasabha and the Jharkhand Party, or Justin Richard or N E Horo.

With an estimated 12 to 14 per cent of the votes in the Jharkhand belt, the Christians, if combined with another minority, the Muslims, form a formidable block of up to 28 per cent in the region. And unlike in the past, they appear certain to vote en masse in favour of the Congress.

Gauging the community's mood, the Congress is demanding more seats in south Bihar while negotiating an electoral alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal.

With 14 of the 54 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, the Jharkhand belt appears set to witness an interesting battle between the National Democratic Alliance and the Congress-RJD-Left combine.

In 1996, the BJP won all 14 seats, but last year its tally came down to 12, with the Congress grabbing two.

The party's victory in two seats - it almost snatched a third (Raj Mahal), where its candidate, Thomas Hansda, lost by just nine votes after a re-poll in several booths -- came as a surprise to most observers who had ruled the party dead.

With the Christian votes now arrayed even more solidly behind the Congress, and the Muslims and some extreme backward class and dalit supporters of the RJD likely to vote for it, the party can hope to do still better.

But there is another important player in south Bihar. And that is the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, which still enjoys the support of a large number of the non-Christian voters.

True, the JMM has become weak -- in the last two elections, it failed to win a single seat in the region - but it has the capability of spoiling the chances of both the Congress and the BJP in several constituencies.

The JMM has its own share of problems. Its leaders first antagonised the Muslims and then the traditional Kurmi voters. Finally the Christians too turned away, though in the 1995 assembly election they had voted overwhelmingly for it.

The MPs' bribery case of 1993 involving JMM politicians has also tainted the party's image.

As if all this were not enough, there are now reports of serious differences between party president Shibu Soren alias Guruji and vice-president Suraj Mandal.

The BJP, the strongest party in the region at the moment, banks on the non-tribal Hindu votes, though of late it has made inroads into some tribal pockets as well.

But this has increased the resentment of both the Christians and many non-Christian tribals who see the BJP as a threat to their culture, language and identity.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and several of its frontal organisations have spread in the jungles of south Bihar, alarming the missionary groups active in the region for over a century.

To counter the Jharkhand slogan, coined first by the Christians, the BJP is promising a separate Vananchal state.

The industrial and mining centres in south Bihar have always been a communal tinder-box with riots a regular phenomenon till the advent of Laloo Prasad Yadav in 1990. But of late the target has shifted from the Muslims to the Christians.

With the murder of a couple of priests working in far-flung areas, the situation became worse. And in September 1997, Father Christudas, principal of a missionary school in Dumka, was stripped naked, beaten and paraded by some people on a charge of sodomising some boys.

The charge has not yet been proved. But what was more shocking was that the then deputy commissioner, Abhas Kumar Jha, and some other officials participated in that parade.

The ghastly murder of Australia-born missionary Graham Stewart Staines and his two young sons in neighbouring Keonjhar district of Orissa will also have its impact. The Protestants, who used to vote for N E Horo of the Jharkhand Party, may also vote tactically to avoid a split in the anti-BJP vote.

It is not for nothing that the Catholic Sisters and Fathers are holding seminars and discussions on the political situation in Patna, Ranchi and elsewhere.

"Yes, this is for the first time that we are organising such meetings on the eve of an election. The purpose is just to teach the masses," Father Mathew Chemplany S J told rediff.com

But what he left unsaid is more significant, and that is that the Church is really worried by the rise of the BJP.

Apart from the Christians, the Muslims too are likely to throw their weight in favour of the Congress-RJD combination. South Bihar has a strong presence of Ansaris -- traditionally Congress voters. Though they turned away from the party after the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992, by 1998 they were back in the party's fold.

Though 13 months is too short a time to assess the performance of MPs or a government, the BJP candidates are banking on the Kargil factor, especially in the urban centres.

With more than a month to go for the poll, it is difficult to predict which combination has the edge. The only certainty is that a very close contest is on the cards.

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